I love it when my predictions pay off! As you can see from the screen above, the flights I booked myself on months ago are completely "zero'd" out (with the exception of "F" or "First Class"). That means that the airline is no longer selling economy seats on the flight; and further, in fact, it means that these flights are "oversold."

Almost every airline "oversells" their flights. This means that they sell more seats than are actually available, counting on a certain number of no-shows. This kind of activity is particularly prevalent during peak travel times and holiday weekends. On a 125-seat aircraft, for example, an airline will sell 140 seats, counting on 15 people not to show up. More often than not, their algorithms are correct and an "oversold" flight will go out just full or even with a few empty seats!

HOWEVER, there are times, like in the situation you see above, where the airline has an "oh crap" moment. Sell too many seats, overload your sophisticated computer systems, and max out your guesstimations. (Holiday weekends are great for this -- while business travelers are notorious for missing/skipping/changing flights, families are more prone to show up for their scheduled departures.) When targetting flights for bumps, look for high-peak business travel flights combined with holiday weekend fervor. Friday evening (before a holiday weekend) and Sunday afternoon/evening (after a holiday weekend) are great examples.

How can airlines do this, you ask? Don't lots of customers get angry that they can't get on the plane? That they bought a ticket for a seat that didn't exist? Yes -- but then, you see, the bidding begins. The airline starts to look for "volunteers" to give up their seats in exchange for all sorts of goodies. On international flights, this often takes the form of $$-off credit vouchers and promises of an upgrade on the next flight out. Domestically, the offer is typically made to give out a free roundtrip ticket. You see, even if the airline pays you $600 to volunteer your seat, know that they've sold someone else a ticket for $1,500 (perhaps he bought it just a few days before) -- albeit for a non-existant seat. They're still making money! It's a win:win:win -- you get money, the airline gets money, and the gentleman that paid $1,500 for a ticket gets a seat.

So, I was very happy give up my seat, make a little extra travel money and give a gentleman his trip to Seattle. More on the "art of the bump" will surely occupy a few of our entries here later... if you have any bump experiences or wisdom you'd like to share, leave a comment or two!